Posted by: Joe Hoffman | July 23, 2009

When the Turn Happens

The following chart is a piece from a Finance and Economics blog that I find interesting.  PLEASE do not go there unless you have very strong masochistic tendencies.  While there is a wealth of very timely information at the site, most of it is pretty ugly right now. “Calculatedriskblog.com”

What I find interesting about the chart below is not the duration of the recessions but the very consistent rate at which the job losses return to the base line.  9.78 months on average and a standard deviation of 2.76 months.  It is only a small sample but it certainly suggests that once the turn is reached a return to normal is 95% likely to take less than 15 months.

For small businesses it would seem wise to be seriously thinking about how you will ramp up to participate in the recovery as early as possible.  Plan for it to happen and plan to bring on the right staff because mistakes will be very costly in the early stages.  In some respects it will be like starting your business all over again so treat it the same way.   Above all, I urge you to take all of the appropriate steps including the use of assessment tools to make each hire count.   See my other posts regarding the “Art of the Hire”

Curves for the last 10 recessions

Curves for the last 10 recessions

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